Philippines multihazard resilience

A tool to measure the socio-economic resilience of the Philippines and the impact of policies at the regional and provincial level.

Model outputs

The resilience indicator multi-hazard model provides an indicator of socio-economic resilience to natural disasters, including wind, storm surge, precipitation (riverine) flood, and earthquakes in the Philippines. The model is a product of the National Economic and Development Authority of the Government of the Philippines, with the support of the World Bank.

Risk to assets

Composite, province-level estimate of the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability of incomes in the each province to natural disasters.

Socio-economic resilience

Socio-economic resilience measures the capacity of populations to sustain asset losses due to natural disasters without impact on well-being. It is the ratio of well-being losses to asset losses, both measured in currency.

Risk to welfare

Small asset losses can mean much more to poor Filipinos than to wealthier ones. Risk to well-being is a measure of the marginal utility of the consumption foregone annually in each province due to natural disasters.

The model allows users to quantify the effects in each province of shifting the following parameters:

  • Hazard (return period): infrastructure in the province is immune to damage from all hazards more frequent than (below) this value.

  • Time to reconstruct: time required to recover fully from losses.

  • Exposure, poor people: the number of poor people in the area affected by a hazard.

  • Exposure, non-poor people: the number of non-poor people in the area affected by a hazard.

  • Avoided losses with early warning: the fraction of losses that would be avoided if all people had advance notice of a disaster.

  • Poverty headcount: poverty incidence.

  • Social protection, poor people: fractional enrollment of poor in social protection programs.

  • Social protection, non-poor people: fractional enrollment of non-poor in social protection programs.

  • Asset vulnerability (poor people): fraction of assets lost by poor people when they are affected by a disaster.

  • Asset vulnerability (non-poor people): fraction of assets lost by non-poor people when they are affected by a disaster.